Pages

Friday, January 20, 2012

[CPSI NewsWire: Hedge Funds Shorting Winsway; Hunnu Delists; Ovoot Updating JORC in March, Erdene Might Spin-Off Mongolian Assets]

CPSI NewsWire brings you market updates on Mongolia, compiled by CPS International, a Mongolian marketing arm of CPS Securities, a Perth, WA based stockbroking and corporate advisory firm, specialising in capital raising for mining and junior stocks.

Wish to subscribe or unsubscribe? Let me know.

See Mongolia related quotes at bottom of newsletter

 

Winsway Says Allegations on Coal Purchases in Report Are Unsubstantiated

January 20 (Bloomberg) Winsway Coking Coal Holdings Ltd. (1733), which processes and transports coal to China from Mongolia, denied allegations from a short seller that imports were less than the company reported.

"Winsway is absolutely not a fraud," as was alleged in a report from Jonestown Research, Chief Financial Officer Jerry Xie said yesterday on a call with investors. The Hong Kong-based company received the report yesterday that includes other allegations and may not have come from a "reputable" group, he said. Winsway slid 8.6 percent yesterday.

Scrutiny of accounting standards of Chinese companies intensified last June when short seller Carson Block's Muddy Waters LLC alleged Sino-Forest Corp. overstated its assets and cash. Short sellers have targeted other Chinese companies including vegetable producer Chaoda Modern Agriculture Holdings Ltd. (682) and software maker Longtop Financial Technologies Ltd. (LGFTY)

Winsway's decline "was triggered by a sell report written by an unknown research house," Helen Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst with UOB Kay Hian, wrote in a note to clients. "Hedge funds therefore took this excuse to short it down."

Winsway rescheduled a conference call with investors to 8:30 a.m. Hong Kong time today instead of at 10 p.m. yesterday, Xie said.

"We need a little more time to prepare the numbers," Xie said in a telephone interview.

Winsway fell to HK$1.91 at the close yesterday in Hong Kong, its biggest decline since Oct. 3. There were 65.3 million shares traded, compared with the three-month average of 9.8 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Coal Takeover

Winsway will proceed with its planned purchase of Canadian metallurgical-coal producer Grande Cache Coal Corp. (GCE), Xie said. It agreed in October to buy the miner with Japan's Marubeni (8002) Corp. for C$1 billion ($990 million) to take advantage of surging demand from steel producers in China.

Grande Cache, based in Calgary, fell 5.7 percent to C$9.35 at the close yesterday in Toronto.

"Grande Cache Coal has no reason to believe that there is any merit to the allegations," the company said yesterday in a statement. Grande Cache "has been assured by Winsway that the report is entirely without merit."

InvestDOOR, the website that published the Jonestown Research report, didn't respond to e-mail queries, and the report didn't have any information on the writers. There also didn't appear to be any results on a research firm named Jonestown Research using Google Inc.'s Internet search engine.

Companies Targeted

Carolyn Quick, a spokeswoman for TMX Group Inc., owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, declined to comment on the issue, citing company policy not to discuss individual companies.

Reports alleging inaccurate reporting and fraud at companies with operations in China have had a mixed record.

Silvercorp Metals Inc., the Vancouver-based mining company that faced fraud allegations in August, said in October a forensic investigation by accounting firm KPMG LLP found the assertions in two anonymous reports were untrue. In September, the miner with operations in China sued two websites and their operators for allegedly spreading false information in an effort to drive down the company's stock price.

China vegetable supplier Chaoda, which plunged more than 80 percent last year in Hong Kong, delayed its annual earnings release on Sept. 30 to audit its accounts after a report from Anonymous Analytics questioned its finances. The shares were suspended Sept. 26.

Longtop Delisted

Longtop Financial's shares plunged and were eventually delisted in the U.S. after Citron Research and OLP Global LLC alleged the company inflated profit margins by hiding expenses and underpaying employee benefits.

Winsway hadn't been contacted by Hong Kong's bourse, Xie said. Ernest Kong, a spokesman for the city's Securities and Futures Commission, declined to comment when reached yesterday by telephone.

Jonestown said in its report it's betting that shares of both Winsway and Grande Cache will decline. In short selling, investors sell borrowed shares in anticipation that the securities will decline and they can buy them back at a profit.

Winsway uses so-called intermediaries to import coal and that may account for differences in Winsway's own accounts and Chinese import data as alleged in the report, Xie said.

'By the Book'

"Everything we have done is done by the book," he said.

Winsway's transportation company in Mongolia, Moveday, used to be part of the company and is "not legally attached" anymore after it was spun off before Winsway's initial public offering in 2010, Xie said. Moveday is an "undisclosed related party," Jonestown said in the report.

Winsway has four suppliers in Mongolia, including Mongolian Mining Corp. (975) and SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (1878), Xie said. It counts China Minmetals Co. and Marubeni as its customers, he said. Ma Jun, a spokesman of China Minmetals, said he has no information about Winsway as the company has many suppliers.

There are eight "buy" ratings on Winsway, three "holds" and no "sells," according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Winsway started trading in October 2010 after selling shares at HK$3.70 a piece, raising HK$3.66 billion ($470 million) in its IPO.

Link to article

Link to the report that alleged the accusations and its response to Winsway's response

 

Hunnu: REMOVAL FROM OFFICIAL LIST

January 20, Hunnu Coal Limited --

Hunnu Coal Limited (the "Company") will be removed from the official list of ASX Limited as from the close of trading on Friday, 20 January, 2012 at the request of the Company, under listing rule 17.14 following compulsory acquisition by Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte Limited.

Link to release

 

OVOOT EXPLORATION UPDATE AND 2012 PLAN

January 20, Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) --

Highlights

·         Coking coal confirmed in New Coal Discovery area north east of existing Ovoot Coal Resource

·         Raw coal analysis shows mid-volatile coal, CSN of 7-9, high calorific values

·         Exploration continuing over New Coal Discovery area

·         Updated Ovoot Coal Resource/Reserve expected March 2012 quarter

·         Aspire to undertake 16,500m exploration drilling program in 2012

·         Airborne magnetic program undertaken over entire Ovoot Project

·         Infill drilling for Pre-Feasibility Study complete, study to be finalised February 2012

·         Hurimt Prospect exploration drilling brought forward to commence February 2012

Mongolian coal explorer Aspire Mining Limited (ASX: AKM, "Aspire" or "the Company") is pleased to confirm the presence of coking coal at the New Coal Discovery area to the north east of the existing Ovoot Coal Resource (refer Figure 1).

Initial raw coal analysis shows mid-volatile coal with CSN of 7-9, low moisture and high calorific values. These high CSN's of 7-9 with mid volatile, and low moisture results are similar to the Ovoot Coal Resource.

Link to release

 

ERD closed +26.09%, up +87.1% in last 1 month

Erdene Climbs 28% in Morning Trade; Commences Review of Capital Structure (e.g. spin-off of Mongolian assets)

January 19 (MidnightTrader.com) Erdene Resource Development Corp. (ERD.TO) is enjoying sharp gains today as it announce that the Board has commenced a review of the capital structure of the company to explore and evaluate potential alternatives in order to maximize shareholder value.

The diversified resource company said its options include a spin-off of the Mongolian assets, sale of subsidiaries, strategic investments, project financing and other corporate and financial transactions.

ERD shares are now trading at 59 cents a share, jumping 28% from the previous 46 cents close. So far, more than 309.7 thousand shares have already changed hands.

Link to article

Link to ERD release

 

BDI opens flat at 0.4c

BLINA MINERALS ANNOUNCES $740,000 SHARE PLACEMENT

January 20 -- The Board of Blina Minerals NL (ASX: BDI) is pleased to advise that it has received firm commitments to subscribe for a total of 185,069,958 ordinary fully paid shares at an issue price of 0.4 cents per share to raise $740,279.83 before costs.

The placement will be made to sophisticated and professional investors in accordance with section 708 of the Corporations Act.  The shares will be issued upon receipt of cleared funds, pursuant to the Company's existing 15% placement capacity and the approval granted by shareholders on 24 November 2011 to issue up to a further 100,000,000 shares.

The funds raised from the placement will be applied towards the Company's exploration program and for general working capital purposes.

Patersons Securities Limited was the Lead Manager to the Placement.

Link to release

 

Mongol Bank sold $2M on 19 Jan at 1,381

January 20 (Mogi) Mongol Bank's next round of recent USD sales continued with $2M sold at 1,381, bringing down the official rate to 1,387.41 as of 19 January closing.

Link to Mongol Bank release

Link to official rates

 

MSE Ratifies New "Membership Rules"

January 20 (Mogi) MSE resolution on 16 January 2012 ratified the new "Membership Rules". Click here to view.

Link to MSE release (in Mongolian)

 

Shivee Ovoo records $1.87M trade day

January 20 (Mogi) 186,035 shares of Shivee Ovoo JSC (SHV:MO) traded on 19 January, closing down 3.45% to 14,000, worth $1.87M, estimated by ResCap.

Link to ResCap Daily Training Update, 19 January

 

Berkh Uul JSC (MSE:BEU) Completes 1,700 Meter Drilling Program

ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 19, 2012) - Berkh Uul JSC (MSE:BEU) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its 1,700 meter drilling program at the Delgerkhaan fluorspar deposit. The goal of the drilling program was to verify prior drilling data, enabling the registration of reserves with Mongolian authorities at MRAM. The drilling data will also be used to prepare a NI 43-101 compliant resource report.

The drilling has intersected the previous veins established by the historic data, which was based on drilling by Russians in the 1960s. MRAM compliant resource report will be prepared by a local consulting company, while an Australian-based mining consultant, Micromine, has been engaged to prepare the NI 43-101 report. Management anticipates that the report will produce a resource estimate in line with the historical drilling.

Berkh Uul JSC (MSE:BEU) is a diversified Mongolian mining and exploration company listed on the Mongolian Stock Exchange and is one of the companies used to calculate the MSE Top 20 Index. Berkh Uul JSC's primary asset is the Delgerkhaan fluorspar deposit. Berkh Uul JSC is controlled by funds managed by affiliates of Firebird Management LLC, a New York-based private equity and hedge fund management company.

Link to release

 

UPDATE 5-Miner Rio clear to take over Mongolia project after Ivanhoe relents

* Ivanhoe Mines cancels shareholder rights plan

* Rio welcomes decision, says is free to raise stake

* Agreement blocking Rio share increase also expires Jan 18

* Rio holds 49 percent of Ivanhoe

* Ivanhoe obtains $1.8 bln bridge loan

TORONTO/LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Global miner Rio Tinto is clear to take over Mongolia's coveted Oyu Tolgoi project, which promises to be one of the world's largest copper-gold mines, after project owner Ivanhoe Mines decided to scrap a controversial "poison pill".

Ivanhoe said on Wednesday it would ditch its shareholder rights plan, originally aimed at blocking Rio Tinto from raising its stake in the Canadian firm, as a separate agreement capping the global miner's holding at 49 percent expired.

Rio, which has built its stake in the miner as it has helped fund construction of Oyu Tolgoi, welcomed the decision.

"As the 49 percent cap on Rio Tinto's ownership of Ivanhoe expires today, we are free to increase our shareholding as we see fit," a Rio spokesman said.

Ivanhoe said Rio had recently told Ivanhoe's board that it intends to buy additional shares to raise its stake to more than 50 percent.

Ivanhoe's rights plan, backed by shareholders in 2010 and due to expire next year, was dealt a fatal blow in December when a court ruled it could not be used to dilute Rio's stake.

The ruling recommended Ivanhoe consider scrapping the provision, which would have triggered a massive rights issue in the event of a bid.

"Certainly Rio would like to own it, they would like to control it - it is their biggest copper project. They see it is a great asset and they are willing to back it," said analyst Nik Stanojevic at brokerage Brewin Dolphin in London.

"They want to buy it and they will think of a sensible way of getting hold of more of it."

Cancelling the shareholder plan will require approval of shareholders at the company's annual meeting on May 11.

TOUGH NEGOTIATIONS AHEAD

Analysts said Rio, still scarred by its costly takeover of Canadian aluminium giant Alcan in 2007, was unlikely to move aggressively to take over Oyu Tolgoi or Ivanhoe - or get into a potentially bruising battle with Ivanhoe CEO Robert Friedland.

Rio's preference, they said, is most likely to lie with a friendly deal with Ivanhoe directors to give Rio control of Oyu Tolgoi in a cash and share swap, leaving behind Ivanhoe's other assets, including stakes in coal miner South Gobi Resources, Ivanhoe Mine Australia and Kazakh project Kyzyl Gold.

Credit Suisse analysts valued the 66 percent stake in Oyu Tolgoi at $13.3 billion in a note earlier this week.

Rio's Australian shares traded a touch firmer on the news on Thursday, at A$66.80, but trailed the wider materials sector .

Friedland, one of the industry's best known entrepreneurs, may be ready to move on to fresh pastures. But he is also known for tough negotiation, having extracted a fortune from Inco for the Voisey's Bay nickel deposit in Eastern Canada - the 1990s deal that made his name.

There are no other apparent buyers for Oyu Tolgoi, with Rio already controlling a blocking stake in Ivanhoe. It already operates the project and is one of few companies with the deep pockets necessary to fund a similar sized mine.

This could allow Rio time to resolve key operational issues at Oyu Tolgoi, including power provision to the site.

Oyu Tolgoi, which translates to Turquoise Hill, is located about 50 miles north of Mongolia's border with copper-hungry China and is considered one of the world's largest copper and gold deposits.

Development of the $6 billion project was delayed for years as Ivanhoe hammered out a complicated royalty agreement with Mongolia, finally agreeing to a deal in 2009 that gave the country 34 percent of the project.

Once at commercial production in 2013, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to produce more than 544,000 tonnes of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 3 million ounces of silver a year on average over its first ten years.

Ivanhoe also said it had obtained second $1.8 billion bridge loan as a stopgap measure while it negotiates $4 billion in long-term financing for Oyu Tolgoi. The bridge loan is subject to Rio's approval.

Shares of Ivanhoe were barely changed, last trading at C$19.31 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

Link to article

 

SPEAKER RECEIVES RESOLUTION ON DISCHARGING MINISTERS FROM POSTS

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, January 19 /MONTSAME/ On Thursday, head of the Cabinet Secretariat of the Government Ch.Khurelbaatar submitted to the Speaker D.Demberel a draft resolution of parliament on discharging six ministers from the posts.

The First Deputy Premier N.Altankhuyag, the Finance Minister S.Bayartsogt, the Minister of Environment and Tourism L.Gansukh, the Defense Minister L.Bold, the Minister of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development Kh.Battulga and the Health Minister S.Lambaa have expressed their willingness to leave the coalition government.

The Speaker accepted the parliamentary resolution, and will discuss it at the Standing committee on state structure and then consider it at a plenary meeting of parliament.

Link to article

 

Parliament passes laws on conflicts of interest, anticorruption

January 19 (news.mn) Parliament on Thursday passed draft laws on preventing conflicts of interests in state agencies, on anticorruption, and on state services. Amendments to the Criminal Law were also ratified. 

Speaker D.Demberel said the laws are very crucial because Parliament discussed the drafts for long period of a time. He urged state officials to study the laws and said special attention should be paid to their enforcement.

MPs debated the date the laws will take effect. Kh.Temuujin said state officials will submit their income declarations on February 15, so the laws should be enforced from that date. But the Standing Committee on Justice did not approve enforcement from February 15, and Parliament decided the laws will take effect July 15. 

Link to article

 

Students urged to refuse MNT 70,000 allowance

January 19 (news.mn) Students and teachers from the National University of Mongolia's Economic and Finance Department held a press conference on Wednesday to urge students to refuse their monthly MNT 70,000 allowance from the state.

They said the allowance, along with the monthly MNT 21,000 allowance that each citizen receives from the state, will raise inflation and hurt the country's economy. They said the allowances are an inefficient use of state resources and promote laziness.

The Government has decided to grant allowances to 160,000 students at a cost of about MNT 100 billion. The students at the press conference said that money should instead be used to create jobs, which would reduce poverty in the country. They said their research found that 22 percent of students will spend their allowance on transportation, 28 percent will save it. 

The students said the allowances could push inflation up to 20 percent. 

Link to article

 

Booming Mongolia: Mine, all mine

The country that is likely to grow faster than any other in the next decade, and how it is changing, for better or worse

January 21 (The Economist, print edition) "GOIN' to OT?" drawls Andy, a burly tattooed man with that worldly air common to those who have done time in the American army. The gate at Incheon airport in South Korea is packed with travellers, mainly Mongolian expatriates on their way home, waiting to board a flight to Ulaanbaatar. Andy's is a fair guess as to the destination of one of the few other Western passengers. "OT"—Oyu Tolgoi, or "Turquoise Hill"—is in the middle of nowhere, a desolate spot in the Gobi desert, another hour-and-a-half's flight south of Ulaanbaatar (inevitably, "UB"). But it is the site of the biggest foreign-investment project in Mongolia, a copper-and-gold mine that is springing up at a remarkable speed and is expected, by 2020, to account for one-third of Mongolia's GDP.

For Andy, who normally "does security" in places such as Afghanistan, Nigeria and Somalia, OT is a rest cure. Conditions are comfortable, the locals are a delight, and nobody tries to shoot him. And there are the transits through UB, a veritable Bangkok of the steppes—at least if your comparators are Kabul and Mogadishu. In the OT bus from UB airport into town, Andy is on tenterhooks waiting for the overnight hotel allocation. He is delighted with his billet—one where overnight guests are readily tolerated. The other news is less cheery: the airport bus will leave at four in the morning.

UB is a boom town on the frontier of global mining. Hotels are bursting; the Irish pubs, of which there are several, are heaving with foreign miners, investment bankers and young local women with very long legs and very short skirts. French bistros serve steaks the size of tabloid newspapers. Dozens of cranes punctuate the skyline. The streets, empty 20 years ago, are now clogged. It is hard to believe on the clear sunny mornings the city enjoys much of the year, but UB's air is now as polluted as anywhere—second only to the Iranian city of Ahwaz, according to a recent study by the World Health Organisation. In the winter, when temperatures average from -10 to -30 centigrade, and often fall to -40 at night, UB burns a lot of coal.

Another sign of a boom is the effort to keep the city functioning through these crippling winters. When a Singaporean firm was building a joint-venture brewery to make Tiger beer, it was so anxious to finish in time for the summer-drinking high season that it hired patio heaters the size of jet engines for the construction site. Without such aids, building stops in the Mongolian winter. It is too cold to pour concrete.

A glitzy mall on the corner of the main Sukhbaatar Square houses the sort of establishments you come across in the better class of airport: chic boutiques, pricey restaurants, expensive-watch shops and, of course, an outlet of Louis Vuitton, which sells posh luggage. The shops usually look empty, which is reassuring for those nostalgic for the UB of the recent past—small, drab and poor, and offering its visitors, as one unhappily put it, a choice of "mutton, mutton and mutton", but at least refreshingly different from other capitals.

Central Tower, as it is known, is a new ornament to downtown Ulaanbaatar. It is built next door to the lot where once stood the former headquarters of the former Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, the MPRP (it has since dropped the "R" word), which for seven decades until 1990 ruled Mongolia as a one-party state and rock-solid Soviet satellite. The building was burned down in rioting in 2008 after a disputed election. The use to which the site has now been put is as good a symbol as any of the new aspirations of Mongolia's ruling class.

Dreams under your feet

To pay for these dreams, Mongolia is being dug up and sold to China. Already, more than 80% of its exports are minerals, a proportion expected to rise in a few years to 95%. Mongolia makes mining geologists salivate over its known riches and unexplored potential—for copper, coal, gold, silver, uranium, molybdenum, and on and on. Some 3,000 mining licences have been issued.

It is not just that Mongolia is a treasure-chest of geological wealth. It is slap-bang next to the world's biggest and fastest-growing market for most minerals. Put together Mongolian supply and Chinese demand, and Mongolia will be rich beyond the wildest dreams of a population many of whom, a generation ago, saw themselves as nomadic herders. With just under 3m people, Mongolia has a chance of becoming a Qatar or a Brunei: a country that has only a small population but almost all of it, in global terms, loaded. Brian Fisher, an Australian economist who has conducted a study of the economic impact of OT, says Mongolia "sounds like Australia in 1930".

In the third quarter of 2011 Mongolia's economy grew by 21% compared with the same period in 2010. Even sober economists think the country is going to have to get used to this sort of thing. The IMF expects growth to average 14% a year between 2012 and 2016. In 2013, the year production is due to begin in earnest at OT, it is forecast to reach 22.9%. Others think it will be at least twice that.

Indeed, OT is the force driving many of these short-term projections towards the sky. Its construction is a big factor in this year's boom. From 2013 its sales will start adding an average of about five percentage points a year to the national growth rate up to 2020, when its impact on the economy will peak. By November last year over $3 billion had already been spent on OT, a figure that will rise to $6 billion by 2013 and $10 billion by 2020. For Mongolia, a $6 billion economy, this is enormous.

So is the scale of the logistical challenge of building one of the world's biggest copper mines in the middle of the desert. All supplies have to be brought in by road, from China to the south. Some 18,000 workers, including about 10,000 Mongolians and 6,000 Chinese, have to be housed and fed. Water had to be found, and is to be piped from an underground aquifer over 50km (32 miles) away. Electricity is to be provided first from China, then by a purpose-built power plant. And local people have to be compensated, coaxed and cajoled into believing that the mine is in their interests, not just those of the foreigners who are running it.

The project is a joint venture between the Mongolian government (34%) and Ivanhoe Mines of Canada (66%), which is in turn 49% owned by Rio Tinto, the mining giant that is managing OT and has put up most of the money. Already the Turquoise Hill, where the colour of the soil first betrayed the presence of copper to prospectors decades ago, has vanished. A huge pit is opening up for the first phase of the mine. Two shafts have been sunk for the second, underground, phase. On top of one, a tower is soaring. It will be the tallest structure in the Gobi, and perhaps in Mongolia. The workers are housed in long prefabricated buildings or, for the luckier ones, traditional gers, circular felt tents (equipped with untraditional en suite facilities, TV and Ethernet cables).

All this is justified commercially by the expectation that this mine will produce 450,000 tonnes of copper a year, making it one of the world's five biggest mines, as well as being a big gold producer. And it will have a life of at least 50 years. The more they look, the more potential geologists find in the area. It will be what Rio calls a "first-quartile" mine in terms of costs—ie, among the cheapest. And its proximity to China means that the cost of transport should not be prohibitive. The price of copper is especially vulnerable to swings in market sentiment. But global supply is constrained, and barring global economic Armageddon, demand is not going to collapse.

OT, however, matters not just in itself, but as a test of Mongolia's ability to work with foreign investors to pull off such mammoth undertakings. Next in line is Tavan Tolgoi (Five Hills), the world's biggest untapped coal deposit, also in South Gobi province. Notional shares in this project have already been distributed (electronically) to every Mongolian born before March 31st 2011. With a general election due in 2012, this adds political urgency to an ambitious scheme to raise billions of dollars for the mine through an initial public offering of shares in Ulaanbaatar and London. This will double the market capitalisation of the sleepy UB stock exchange.

Mongolian coal production is expected to increase from about 16m tonnes a year now to 40m by 2020 and 240m by 2040. Again China provides a ready market, but the mining boom has exacerbated Mongolian fears of a Chinese takeover by commercial stealth. So feasibility studies are under way on the costly options of building railways to take coal to Russia, and thence out to Korea and Japan via Vladivostok, or to Dandong on the Chinese-North Korea border and thence by sea to South Korea.

A touch of Dutch on the steppes

Not everyone in Mongolia looks at the growth projections and goes giddy with delight. Many worry about the economic, environmental, social and strategic costs of becoming "Minegolia". Economists fret about a "resource curse", or "Dutch disease". If even the Netherlands can be vulnerable to this—whereby wealth floods in as natural resources are exploited, pushes up the exchange rate, inflation, or both, and renders other industries uncompetitive—how is poor Mongolia to cope? And the Netherlands never had a year like the one Mongolia can expect in 2013, when the economy will grow by a quarter and the current-account balance will lurch from a deficit of 14% of GDP into surplus.

Furthermore, Mongolia, a 20-year-old democracy, is prone to populist policymaking. Even as the economy is booming, political parties are tempted to promise handouts. After pledges made at the previous election, every Mongolian, rich or poor, gets 21,000 togrogs ($16) on the 15th of every month. The big parties have declared a no-handout pact ahead of the next election, and the government has set up a "fiscal-stability fund" to smooth the commodity cycle. But the temptation to dip into the till will mount as voting nears.

For economists, the resource curse is a risk Mongolia has little option but to take. As Mr Fisher, the Australian economist, puts it, its comparative advantage is in commodities and mining services. There is no point in trying to compete in manufacturing with "the biggest factory on the planet" next door in China.

Mongolia is still a desperately poor country. It has just graduated, in development-bank speak, to "lower-middle-income" status, with a GDP of around $2,000 per head. The population of UB has expanded by 70% in the past few years, to about 1.2m now. Some poor people still spend the winter nights beneath the streets (open manholes are a pedestrian hazard), huddling near the pipes for warmth. The city is sprawling outward through valleys in all directions along dirt roads lined with clapboard fences, behind which former herders live in gers.

One such herder, given the name Igor by Russians he knew in his youth, describes a common life path. A few years ago, herding in Central province, he lost many of his sheep to a dzud, one of the periodic climatic disasters that hit Mongolia—a summer drought that results in too little pasture and too little hay for the winter, followed by heavy winter snow and colder-than-usual temperatures. Igor sold the rest of his livestock to pay for his children's schooling, bought a pickup truck and moved to UB, where he makes a living hiring it out. He finds UB going from bad to worse, as more people come to town and scramble to earn money. All there is to look forward to is the summer pilgrimage home, to drink airag (fermented mare's milk) with his friends in a ger.

It is not just the weather that drives herders into town. Some are mining refugees, fleeing environmental devastation. Besides the licence-holders Mongolia has tens of thousands of illegal gold prospectors, known as "ninja" miners because the green plastic bowls they carry on their backs to sift for specks of the metal make them look like mutant turtles. Their use of mercury and cyanide has poisoned rivers.

Mongolia's most flamboyant environmental campaigner is a former herder called Tsetsegee Munkhbayar. He made his name helping clean up the Onggi river, and then for his extreme forms of protest, involving shooting at mining equipment or vehicles. In April 2011 he led a group of supporters into Sukhbaatar Square on horseback to demand talks with the government. Mr Munkhbayar, a grim-faced man looking out of place behind a desk in his UB office in knee-length boots and traditional jacket, believes that if Mongolians exploit the mines, "we will never develop." He suggests an alternative future of herding, dairy-farming and tourism. As he talks he is interrupted by a loud blare of traditional Mongolian music. It is the ringtone on his mobile.

And not a drop to drink

One UB resident, visiting the OT site as an interpreter for a foreign journalist, cannot stop herself from weeping at what is being done to the area and to her country. For the outsider, the bleak brown desolation of the Gobi is not a landscape that evokes sympathy. And it needs an awful lot of Gobi to sustain a flock of goats and camels, so, vast though the OT project is, the number of herders directly affected is small. But the translator sees ruin: "You can't drink copper; you can't drink gold."

In fact, the aquifer tapped for OT is too deep to affect surface water, too saline to pass human-consumption standards and so big it will be no more than one-third depleted after 50 years of the project. The big danger environmentalists see from its use is that even a future natural drought may be blamed on OT. It will be hard for the project to deny water to distressed local herders. That might lead to overgrazing.

Such a massive undertaking is bound to distort the local economy and disrupt the environment. Compared with the ninjas, the multinationals and the development banks that will help raise the largest-ever project financing for mining can at least claim to be part of the solution. They are conducting impact assessments and bio diversity studies. The project is also providing jobs, and creating more employment for locals through subcontracts.

But it will struggle to be popular. Oyun Sanjasuuren, an independent member of parliament, says mining is bound to be political because it is "the main thing in the country". And the face of Mongolian mining over the past 15 years has been "mostly ugly". Miss Oyun says she entered parliament as a centrist, but now finds herself on the right as the main parties have shifted steadily to the left. OT has not been helped by tactless remarks made in the past by Robert Friedland, Ivanhoe's boss, about "the cash machine we intend to build", and how nice it was to have so few people around and "no NGOs".

The wealth generated by the miners is an obvious target. And the militant Mr Munkhbayar has many fans even among young urban Mongolians who moan that development is arriving too slowly. Like him, they wish it could come from some other industry. Every herder, says one environmentalist, hopes that at least one person in his family will carry on the life. But that may be changing. Twenty years ago it was hard to meet anyone in UB who identified with the city. Even if they were born there, they saw "home" as the "aimag", or province, from which their parents came. Now a new generation of city-dwellers feels less attached to the countryside and to nomadic herding traditions. Their numbers are swollen by young people returning from an overseas education to chase the new opportunities the mining boom is throwing up.

One such, a young man called Damdin, is finding life difficult. After 15 years in Fairfax, Virginia, he has forgotten most of his Mongolian. He left Mongolia with his mother, who was fleeing his alcoholic father. At school in America the other Asian students were scared of him, despite his short stature; Mongolians, he says, have the reputation of being psychos. Now back in UB, living in a ger with his father who spends his time playing games on Facebook, his ambition is to open UB's first skateboard shop.

When The Economist encountered him, outside a derelict Buddhist temple in a gerdistrict in the middle of the afternoon, and later at the nearby police station, he had just been punched and robbed of his phone by friends of the friend he had lent it to ("It was 4G, man!"). He was drunk, despite saying he is always teased as a wuss for sticking to beer when real men drink vodka. He was cradling a little street-puppy he had rescued from his muggers, knowing his grandmother would not let him take it home. He presented as forlorn a picture as could be imagined of the pain and dislocation of being caught between two worlds. But he said he had no intention of going back to Virginia.

Link to article

 

Table: Mongolia Related Stocks (Source: Bloomberg)

 

Name

Symbol

$

Price

Change

+-%

Open

High

Low

Volume

Time

% YTD

% 12 m

Indices

ASX 200

AS51:IND

4,214.77

-3.11

-0.07%

4,228.20

4,258.40

4,214.77

0

19-Jan

 

 

Nikkei 225

NKY:IND

8,639.68

89.10

1.04%

8,596.68

8,668.94

8,596.68

0

19-Jan

 

 

Hang Seng

HSI:IND

19,942.95

256.03

1.30%

19,842.46

19,956.54

19,776.32

0

19-Jan

 

 

MSE Top 20

MSETOP:IND

20,226.60

181.90

0.91%

20,226.60

20,226.60

20,226.60

0

19-Jan

 

 

FTSE 100

UKX:IND

5,741.15

38.78

0.68%

5,702.37

5,743.93

5,693.16

1,397,740

19-Jan

 

 

TSX Composite

SPTSX:IND

12,380.69

53.17

0.43%

12,378.82

12,417.69

12,335.39

261,849,117

19-Jan

 

 

S&P 500

SPX:IND

1,314.50

6.46

0.49%

1,308.07

1,315.49

1,308.07

0

19-Jan

ASX

Aspire Mining

AKM:AU

AUD

0.34

-0.005

-1.45%

0.35

0.355

0.335

1,098,901

19-Jan

-8.11%

-54.67%

Blina Minerals

BDI:AU

AUD

0.004

0

0.00%

0.004

0.004

0.004

0

18-Jan

-20.00%

-84.00%

Cougar Energy

CXY:AU

AUD

0.016

0.001

6.67%

0.015

0.016

0.015

144,800

19-Jan

0.00%

-65.96%

Draig Resources

DRG:AU

AUD

0.475

0

0.00%

0.48

0.48

0.47

135,715

19-Jan

-51.53%

FeOre

FEO:AU

AUD

0.275

0

0.00%

0.275

0.275

0.275

0

11-Jan

-1.79%

General Mining

GMM:AU

AUD

0.045

0

0.00%

0.045

0.045

0.045

6,614

19-Jan

9.76%

-67.86%

Guildford Coal

GUF:AU

AUD

0.88

0.06

7.32%

0.82

0.88

0.815

1,418,919

19-Jan

17.33%

15.03%

Haranga Resources

HAR:AU

AUD

0.355

-0.015

-4.05%

0.38

0.385

0.35

325,200

19-Jan

24.56%

-46.21%

Hunnu Coal

HUN:AU

AUD

0

Modun Resources

MOU:AU

AUD

0.042

0.001

2.44%

0.042

0.042

0.042

185,000

19-Jan

-6.67%

250.00%

Mongolian Res Corp

MUB:AU

AUD

0.125

0

0.00%

0.125

0.125

0.125

0

30-Dec

0.00%

-63.24%

Robe Australia

ROB:AU

AUD

0.018

0

0.00%

0.018

0.019

0.018

1,279,241

19-Jan

28.57%

111.77%

Voyager Resources

VOR:AU

AUD

0.072

-0.002

-2.70%

0.073

0.074

0.072

8,964,208

19-Jan

5.88%

39.43%

Xanadu Mines

XAM:AU

AUD

0.335

0

0.00%

0.335

0.335

0.335

0

18-Jan

-2.90%

-55.92%

MSE

A Board

Aduunchuluun 

ADL:MO

MNT

0.179

0

0.00%

0.178

0.179

0.176

1,353,500

19-Jan

1.13%

-76.45%

APU

APU:MO

MNT

1.91

-0.18

-8.61%

2.12

2.13

1.75

65,321,440

19-Jan

-16.59%

-57.22%

Atar Urguu

ATR:MO

MNT

48

2.2

4.80%

46.8

48.5

46.8

149,650

19-Jan

5.38%

-56.40%

Baganuur 

BAN:MO

MNT

23.5

0.15

0.64%

23.35

23.6

23.25

41,300

19-Jan

29.12%

-40.51%

Mogoin Gol

BDL:MO

MNT

2.37

-0.03

-1.25%

2.42

2.42

2.34

946,000

19-Jan

17.33%

-67.84%

BDSec 

BDS:MO

MNT

8.81

0

0.00%

8.81

8.81

8.81

0

19-Jan

0.00%

-29.49%

Bayangol Hotel

BNG:MO

MNT

0.7

0.02

2.94%

0.67

0.71

0.67

13,824,200

19-Jan

0.00%

-70.71%

Bayanteeg 

BTG:MO

MNT

3.4

0.03

0.89%

3.4

3.51

3.37

51,919,694

19-Jan

16.44%

-20.17%

UB BUK

BUK:MO

MNT

0.05

-0.001

-1.96%

0.049

0.051

0.048

4,458,000

19-Jan

8.70%

-58.68%

Eermel

EER:MO

MNT

0.228

-0.002

-0.87%

0.23

0.23

0.215

450,000

19-Jan

2.70%

-77.65%

Gobi 

GOV:MO

MNT

0.44

0

0.00%

0.44

0.445

0.44

6,156,000

19-Jan

-4.35%

-25.42%

Gutal

GTL:MO

MNT

0.058

0.006

11.54%

0.051

0.06

0.051

250,000

19-Jan

-4.92%

-54.69%

Hi B Oil

HBO:MO

MNT

0.099

0.009

10.00%

0.09

0.099

0.085

490,000

19-Jan

-5.71%

-59.59%

Khukh Gan

HGN:MO

MNT

6.38

0.19

3.07%

6.24

6.42

6.24

2,856,054

19-Jan

9.25%

-40.15%

Hermes Centre

HRM:MO

MNT

0.875

-0.005

-0.57%

0.88

0.88

0.875

11,531,000

19-Jan

0.57%

25.90%

Jenko Tour Bureau

JTB:MO

MNT

4,850

0

0.00%

4,850

4,851

4,816

500

19-Jan

-19.17%

-59.58%

Telecom Mongolia

MCH:MO

MNT

4,000

99

2.54%

3,905

4,000

3,905

5,014

19-Jan

-4.76%

39.37%

Mongolia Dev Res

MDR:MO

MNT

37,500

-200

-0.53%

37,500

37,500

37,500

3

19-Jan

Moninjbar

MIB:MO

MNT

10,600

100

0.95%

10,500

10,610

10,500

194

19-Jan

-19.08%

-3.64%

Mongol Nekhmel

MNH:MO

MNT

30,500

-1500

-4.69%

30,100

30,500

30,100

19

19-Jan

-1.61%

128.64%

Hotel Mongolia

MSH:MO

MNT

3,790

490

14.85%

3,400

3,790

3,400

185

19-Jan

8.29%

43.02%

Darkhan Nekhii

NEH:MO

MNT

33,010

-1990

-5.69%

33,010

33,010

33,010

1

19-Jan

-8.18%

38.12%

Nak Tulsh

NKT:MO

MNT

31,999

-4001

-11.11%

31,500

31,999

31,500

62

19-Jan

-11.11%

276.46%

Olloo

OLL:MO

MNT

30,000

-2500

-7.69%

29,950

30,000

29,950

123

19-Jan

-7.69%

395.87%

Remikon 

RMC:MO

MNT

3,200

130

4.23%

3,070

3,200

3,070

30

19-Jan

14.29%

28.00%

Sharyn Gol 

SHG:MO

MNT

5,100

0

0.00%

5,100

5,100

5,100

215

19-Jan

-0.97%

-10.53%

Shivee Ovoo

SHV:MO

MNT

4,980

0

0.00%

4,980

4,980

4,980

0

17-Jan

Sor

SOR:MO

MNT

165

-5

-2.94%

165

165

165

269

19-Jan

-13.16%

-17.50%

Suu 

SUU:MO

MNT

181

-4

-2.16%

181

182

181

6,310

19-Jan

-9.50%

3.43%

Tav

TAV:MO

MNT

62

-3

-4.62%

65

65

62

5

19-Jan

10.71%

12.73%

Talkh Chikher

TCK:MO

MNT

91

-1

-1.09%

91

91

91

7,300

19-Jan

-3.19%

0.00%

Tavantolgoi

TTL:MO

MNT

2,655

0

0.00%

2,655

2,655

2,655

0

18-Jan

-1.67%

-29.20%

State Dept Store 

UID:MO

MNT

949

0

0.00%

950

950

949

0

13-Jan

-6.04%

-27.00%

Ulaanbaatar Hotel

ULN:MO

MNT

130

0

0.00%

130

130

130

0

13-Jan

0.00%

18.18%

Mongol Savkhi

UYN:MO

MNT

4,000

0

0.00%

4,199

4,199

4,000

5

19-Jan

21.95%

220.00%

Zoos Goyol

ZOO:MO

MNT

800

0

0.00%

800

800

800

0

18-Jan

-11.01%

HKEx

Solartech Int'l

1166:HK

HKD

6,850

-550

-7.43%

6,506

6,850

6,506

24

19-Jan

10.48%

48.91%

Winsway

1733:HK

HKD

170

-10

-5.56%

170

170

170

35

19-Jan

-2.86%

-46.88%

SouthGobi Resources

1878:HK

HKD

200

-25

-11.11%

221

221

200

9,316

19-Jan

-16.32%

33.33%

China Gold

2099:HK

HKD

181

9

5.23%

167

181

160

26,086

19-Jan

2.84%

105.68%

CNNC Int'l

2302:HK

HKD

9,760

-738

-7.03%

10,001

10,001

9,020

390

19-Jan

-14.01%

-18.67%

Real Gold Mining

246:HK

HKD

14,000

-500

-3.45%

14,150

14,400

14,000

186,035

19-Jan

-8.50%

-9.68%

Mongolia Energy

276:HK

HKD

3,250

45

1.40%

3,500

3,500

3,250

3

19-Jan

-14.92%

186.34%

Zijin Mining

2899:HK

HKD

65,000

0

0.00%

65,000

65,000

65,000

24

19-Jan

0.00%

169.71%

Mongolia Inv Group

402:HK

HKD

0

North Asia Resources

61:HK

HKD

11,000

0

0.00%

11,000

11,000

11,000

0

18-Jan

4.76%

155.81%

China Daye Non-Fer.

661:HK

HKD

10,050

50

0.50%

10,000

10,050

9,900

11,800

19-Jan

-8.64%

67.50%

Bestway Int'l

718:HK

HKD

487

3

0.62%

489

489

487

1,064

19-Jan

-16.03%

13.26%

Asia Coal

835:HK

HKD

45,000

0

0.00%

45,000

45,000

45,000

0

17-Jan

0.00%

63.64%

Mongolian Mining

975:HK

HKD

2,250

-349

-13.43%

2,255

2,255

2,250

389

19-Jan

-13.03%

308.35%

SGX

LionGold

LIGO:SP

SGD

830

5

0.61%

826

830

826

250

19-Jan

-11.70%

0.00%

LSE

Central Asia Metals

CAML:LN

GBp

63.875

-0.375

-0.58%

63

63.875

63

1,913,415

19-Jan

12.31%

-31.50%

Petro Matad

MATD:LN

GBp

34.5

0

0.00%

34.5

34.5

34.375

51,762

19-Jan

39.39%

-70.58%

Metal-Tech

MTT:LN

GBp

4.25

0

0.00%

4.25

4.25

4.25

0

19-Jan

13.33%

-67.92%

Nova Resources

NOVA:LN

GBp

8.25

0

0.00%

8.25

8.25

8

295,000

19-Jan

247.37%

Origo Partners

OPP:LN

GBp

32.75

0

0.00%

32.75

32.75

32.75

10,000

19-Jan

-6.43%

-22.94%

Canada

Aberdeen Int'l

AAB:CN

CAD

0.6

-0.02

-3.23%

0.61

0.61

0.58

323,750

19-Jan

-7.69%

-18.97%

Altan Rio Minerals

AMO:CN

CAD

0

Blue Zen Mem. Parks

BZM:CN

CAD

0.06

0

0.00%

0.03

0.06

0.03

0

18-Jan

20.00%

-94.00%

Centerra Gold

CG:CN

CAD

17.99

-0.51

-2.76%

18.32

18.5

17.95

243,140

19-Jan

-0.06%

5.36%

China Gold

CGG:CN

CAD

3.02

-0.04

-1.31%

2.95

3.23

2.95

95,843

19-Jan

17.97%

-41.36%

Desert Eagle Res

DER:CN

CAD

0.25

-0.02

-7.41%

0.2

0.25

0.185

29,636

19-Jan

-85.38%

Denison Mines

DML:CN

CAD

1.9

0.05

2.70%

1.86

1.92

1.83

3,073,422

19-Jan

49.61%

-43.79%

East Asia Minerals

EAS:CN

CAD

0.5

-0.03

-5.66%

0.53

0.53

0.499

211,206

19-Jan

6.38%

-92.14%

Erdene Resource

ERD:CN

CAD

0.58

0.12

26.09%

0.48

0.65

0.48

584,886

19-Jan

54.67%

-67.05%

Entree Gold

ETG:CN

CAD

1.37

0.05

3.79%

1.32

1.41

1.31

66,829

19-Jan

10.48%

-51.93%

Fortress Minerals

FST:CN

CAD

3.95

0.19

5.05%

4

4

3.85

360,750

19-Jan

-3.66%

-21.00%

Gulfside Minerals

GMG:CN

CAD

0.075

0

0.00%

0.075

0.075

0.075

0

18-Jan

-11.76%

-21.05%

Ivanhoe Energy

IE:CN

CAD

1.09

-0.01

-0.91%

1.1

1.1

1.06

474,550

19-Jan

-2.68%

-66.56%

Ivanhoe Mines

IVN:CN

CAD

19.54

0.23

1.19%

19.54

20.03

19.31

1,487,216

19-Jan

8.02%

-24.20%

Kincora Copper

KCC:CN

CAD

0.28

0

0.00%

0.29

0.29

0.28

0

18-Jan

-9.68%

16.67%

Khan Resources

KRI:CN

CAD

0.225

0.035

18.42%

0.19

0.225

0.185

104,000

19-Jan

12.50%

-52.13%

Lucky Strike

LKY:CN

CAD

0.35

0.025

7.69%

0.35

0.35

0.35

1,500

19-Jan

-1.41%

-69.57%

Meritus Minerals

MER:CN

CAD

0.045

0

0.00%

0.045

0.05

0.045

0

18-Jan

80.00%

-70.97%

Manas Petroleum

MNP:CN

CAD

0.155

0

0.00%

0.145

0.155

0.14

41,000

19-Jan

6.90%

Prophecy Coal

PCY:CN

CAD

0.46

0

0.00%

0.46

0.48

0.445

1,629,875

19-Jan

12.20%

-51.63%

Puget Ventures

PVS:CN

CAD

0.49

0

0.00%

0

17-Sep

SouthGobi Resources

SGQ:CN

CAD

6.39

0.18

2.90%

6.26

6.4

6.26

34,138

19-Jan

6.50%

-55.31%

Solomon Resources

SRB:CN

CAD

0.08

0

0.00%

0.085

0.085

0.08

0

18-Jan

14.29%

-60.00%

Undur Tolgoi Minerals

UTM:CN

CAD

0.2

0

0.00%

0.2

0.2

0.2

0

12-Jan

0.00%

3900.00%

Mongolia Growth Grp

YAK:CN

CAD

4.09

-0.05

-1.21%

4.13

4.19

4.03

26,100

19-Jan

4.87%

 

US

Denison Mines

DNN:US

USD

1.87

0.05

2.75%

1.89

1.9

1.82

1,577,741

19-Jan

49.60%

-45.16%

Entree Gold

EGI:US

USD

1.31

0

0.00%

1.31

1.38

1.29

114,126

19-Jan

9.17%

-54.20%

Ivanhoe Energy

IVAN:US

USD

1.07

-0.05

-4.46%

1.05

1.09

1.05

878,551

19-Jan

-4.46%

-67.28%

Ivanhoe Mines

IVN:US

USD

19.37

0.32

1.68%

19.33

19.86

19.09

2,685,094

19-Jan

9.31%

-25.18%

Manas Petroleum

MNAP:US

USD

0.146

-0.002

-1.35%

0.15

0.155

0.142

1,374,361

19-Jan

-1.02%

-75.67%

Mongolia Growth Grp

MNGGF:US

USD

4.0495

0.038

0.95%

4.095

4.1586

4.0495

9,400

19-Jan

5.32%

Blue Wolf MGL

MNGL:US

USD

9.69

0.02

0.21%

10.08

10.08

9.67

1,517

19-Jan

0.73%

Blue Wolf MGL Unit

MNGLU:US

USD

10.31

0.11

1.08%

10.31

10.31

10.31

100

19-Jan

2.59%

 

---

"Mogi" Munkhdul Badral

Senior Client Manager / Executive Director

CPS International LLC

Telephone/Fax: +976-11-321326

Mobile: +976-99996779

Email: mogi@cpsinternational.mn

P Please consider the environment before printing a copy of this email.

 

Suite 1213 · Level 12 · 2 Sukhbaatar Square

Sukhbaatar District 8 · Ulaanbaatar 14200 · Mongolia

 

CPS International is a marketing arm of CPS Securities in Mongolia. CPS Securities is a Perth, Western Australia based AFSLicense Holder. To trade ASX and international stocks, feel free to contact me at mogi@cpsinternational.mn or +976-99996779.

 

Disclosure/Disclaimer

CPS Securities, its directors and employees advise that they may hold securities, may have an interest in and/or earn brokerage and other benefits or advantages, either directly or indirectly from client transactions mentioned in correspondence from CPS International.

CPS International advise this email contains general information only and does not include advice. In preparing this communication, CPS International did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. As with any speculative mining company there are significant risks.

No comments:

Post a Comment