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Sunday, April 30, 2017

[BREAKING: IMF delays Mongolia bailout decision over hidden FX measure]

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- BREAKING NEWS -

Sunday, April 30, 2017

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Mongolia’s IMF Facility Delayed as Fund to Assess New Measure

By Michael Kohn

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- International Monetary Fund executive board discussion on the $425 million extended-fund facility has been delayed as IMF needs time to assess a new measure related to forex transactions, according to Neil Saker, fund’s resident representative.

* “We need a bit more time to understand the nature and the specifics of the measure, and whether the macroeconomic framework of the program remains valid,” Saker says in email on Saturday. “Such clarification and assessment will be done jointly by the authorities and the staff”

* NOTE: Measure approved by Parliament on April 14 has provision affecting major FDI projects; provision states sale proceeds must pass through a bank account in Mongolia

* NOTE: Mongolia Clears Hurdles Needed for IMF-Led Bailout

(BFW)

 

Oops. “ DONE DEAL” IMF program to Mongolia postponed due to Parliament Resolution’s indeed problematic FX banking subclause

Analyst: Dale Choi, MSc. ( ~19:00 UB time, Saturday, Apr.29th, 2017)

Event: 

Resident Representative of IMF in Mongolia Niel Saker has confirmed to Altan Bumba Financial Group via email that widely expected and scheduled for Apr.28th IMF Executive Board discussion on Mongolia was postponed. 

  • Niel: “This was due to the need to understand a new measure related to the forex transactions of investors that was introduced in a Parliamentary resolution ratified on April 20.” 
  • Niel: “We need a bit more time to understand the nature and the specifics of the measure, and whether the macroeconomic framework of the program remains valid.” 
  • Niel: “As usual, such clarification and assessment will be done jointly by the authorities and the staff.” 

Background:

Parliament Resolution’s 11th subclause

Approved 2017-2019 IMF prior condition fiscal laws package of Apr.14th , which includes Parliament Resolution with FX clauses, has been not published on Mongolian Parliament website parliament.mn

Dale’s DONE DEAL Calls

In my Monday, Mar.20th, 2017 note to premium subscription clients “Late by ~4 months, IMF program by end of April is done deal/walk the talk, next - Gatsuurt IA(not OT copper smelter…)” I called IMF program by end of April DONE DEAL.

Problematic clause 

In my Apr.14th, 2017 IMF-prior condition 2017-2019 fiscal package approval research note for complimentary market distribution “Parliament approved IMF-prior condition 2017-2019 fiscal bills package, great..,but unfortunately, seems with problematic FX clause” I called FX-related  subclause “ problematic”

Humble pie

Oops. DONE DEAL turned out so not so done , after all. I guess it’s time for me to eat some humble pie. FX clause turned out to be indeed PROBLEMATIC.

Stay tuned 

Stay tuned for my upcoming detailed discussion on the subject.

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